Archive for the 'oikonomika/economics' Category

the tytler cycle

I was meaning to write a profound and incendiary blog post today about something I recently learned of called The Tytler Cycle, but in my research, I came across an article written by a gentleman named John Eberhard and posted on CommonSenseGovernment.com. I don’t know anything about the author or the website it came from, but this essay is fascinating, and communicates some of the things I considered after learning of the cycle.

Eberhard posted this on 09/15/03, but it seems just as potent today, if not more so.

(Here’s the Wiki page on Tytler: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Tytler)

Love to hear your thoughts!

//

Alexander Tytler [was] a Scottish historian who lived at the same time as the American Founding Fathers, [and] described a repeating cycle in history. He had found that societies went through this same cycle again and again, and that the cycle lasted roughly 200 years each time.

Tytler said the cycle starts out with a society in bondage. Then it goes in this sequence:

From bondage to spiritual faith;
From spiritual faith to great courage;
From courage to liberty;
From liberty to abundance;
From abundance to complacency;
From complacency to apathy;
From apathy to dependence;
From dependence back into bondage.

Tytler organized these items in a circle:

So to give a little more on the sequence above, a society starts out in bondage, meaning no or very limited freedoms. Now faced with a very difficult situation (bondage), they turn to religion and religious faith. Through this they achieve the courage they need to fight for and win their freedom. Next, through the benefits of freedom, they achieve an abundance in material things.

Now we start into the other side of the circle/cycle. We get selfishness and laziness setting in. Then we get apathy and finally dependence. Then we arrive back up at the top with bondage again.

I was intrigued. I looked for information on Tytler on the Internet, could find none, and finally wrote to Dr. Brooks. [Note: Dr. Shannon Brooks gave a lecture on politics at George Wythe College in Salt Lake City called "The Liber," which is where Eberhard learned of Tytler.] He told first how to spell Tytler’s name, and told me that most of Tytler’s work has been completely lost. On further online search I found a number of sites with limited information on Tytler, but little more than what Brooks had said in his lecture.

I found this cycle to be very interesting in relation to where we are in the United States today. Dr. Brooks said he has asked the question of where the U.S. is in this cycle, in every one of these lectures he has given, to over 10,000 people to date. No one so far has said that we are on the right side of the cycle (spiritual faith, courage, liberty, abundance). Everyone has said we are somewhere on the left side of the circle (selfishness, complacency, apathy, dependence).

Let’s talk about selfishness for a second. We have a situation in America today where many people are trying to get whatever they can out of the “system,” with no concern of how this hurts the overall group of the United States of America.

Remember JFK’s words at his inauguration speech? “Ask not what your country can do for you. Ask what you can do for your country.” You’d be hard pressed to find that sentiment in America today.

You’ve got one third of the US Post Office and the US Printing Office out at any given time on Workers Compensation disability. Does anyone really believe that at any given time, one third of those workers are injured so badly (and injured on the job mind you) so that they are physically unable to work? There are cases documented of federal government employees, for example, going out on disability in 1983, and collecting $5,000 per month for the last twenty years on a completely fraudulent claim. And only now is something being done about some of these cases.

How about all the damage claims cases in the courts? We’ve perhaps lost our incredulity for suits against the tobacco companies. But how about the new crop of suits against the fast food companies because they somehow misled people about the fact that their food is not really that good for you and (horrors) the customers became fat.

Recently a person sued his neighbor because that neighbor’s dog bit him. And he won! Despite the fact that he was in the neighbor’s yard at the time within the reach of the dog who was tied up, and was throwing rocks, antagonizing the dog!

Then we’ve got the welfare class. My mother taught school in the inner city, and would sometimes ask kids what they wanted to do when they grew up. They would sometimes reply, “Get high and get drunk.” These kids’ parents had been on welfare their entire lives and these kids expected to do the same. Why work or learn or achieve anything in class?

Selfishness Crisis

What we have in the U.S. today is a selfishness crisis. And believe me, this did not exist in any way, shape or form 227 years ago.

We have a generation, many of whom are looking for a way to bleed the system to get their “fare share.” We could call them the “entitlement class.” But it goes beyond the welfare class to people with jobs and careers, looking for some way to “cash in” in some way. There are many variations, but the common denominator is people looking for a way to get some kind of a free ride, in a manner in which they did not work for it or earn it.

This reaches even to the tops of corporate America, with the recent bunch of corporate executives and CEOs that had a lapse of ethics and conscience and seem to have forgot such annoying things as laws, in the interest of their own personal fortunes. Enron et al.

I’m not necessarily saying we are at the “selfishness” part of Tytler’s cycle. We might have gone past that point. But we are at least up to that point. And complacency, apathy and dependence are not far behind. You could argue that some people today, such as those who have been on welfare for years, are in the dependence part of the cycle. I know that we had federal welfare reform passed a few years ago and that things are improving somewhat in that zone, but there’s no question that dependency has become a way of life for a certain portion of our citizenry.

And when a people becomes completely dependent, they can be made into slaves. Rather easily.

What Next?

Since learning of this Tytler cycle, hearing the lecture myself and meeting Dr. Brooks, and discussing the issue with friends, I’ve been grappling with the idea that our country may go through a major crisis within the next 30-50 years.

As someone who feels that the United States is without a doubt the best form of government ever seen on this planet, the idea of such a crisis that could lead to what Tytler called “bondage” is very painful.

And yet, we can see the signs. Welfare recipients on the dole for life, people suing others for wacky reasons just so they can “cash in,” state legislators and judges insisting that we must give billions in free benefits to illegal aliens, the concept of personal responsibility becoming a foreign concept, insurance claim fraud accounting for one third of all claims in California - all of these things weaken the group, the group of the USA. These examples penalize the ones who work hard and try to build a society, because these entitllement types are tearing it down. Those who take responsibility are hurt.

So is the cycle inevitable? Are we heading down the drain in the next few years? I wish I had the answer.

But I will say that I don’t believe in the inevitability of our collapse. I don’t think we can believe in it or that it’s sane to believe in it. Otherwise that puts us squarely in the apathy part of the cycle. So I believe we have to assume it’s not inevitable.

We need to educate people on the importance of ethics, of contributing rather than just taking, on insisting that people work for and exchange for what they receive. Only in that way can we reverse this slide. And I believe we can.

//

If you liked that, then try these…

pianos and prep time

interview with mclaren

been awhile.

Email This Post Email This Post +++ Print This Post Print This Post +++ Now that's del.icio.us.

winning the oil endgame

Armory Lovins is a cofounder of the Rocky Mountain Institute, and in this 20 minute talk somehow manages to make our dependence on oil seem like a second grade math problem in terms of easy solvability.

Hey, Somebody in Washington — hire this guy!

//

Email This Post Email This Post +++ Print This Post Print This Post +++ Now that's del.icio.us.

miss the vp debate?

Here’s everything you need to know (give it a second to load):

//

Email This Post Email This Post +++ Print This Post Print This Post +++ Now that's del.icio.us.

business syphilis with stephen colbert

Stephen Colbert explains what’s REALLY going on. (Make sure you watch until at least 2:49… that’s when it gets syphilized.)

//

If you liked that, then try these…

the tytler cycle

the end of the innocence

on perspective

Email This Post Email This Post +++ Print This Post Print This Post +++ Now that's del.icio.us.

big bailout #2

A few messages from Ron Paul on the economy, and Bush’s latest bailout plan.

//

Dear Friends,

Whenever a Great Bipartisan Consensus is announced, and a compliant media assures everyone that the wondrous actions of our wise leaders are being taken for our own good, you can know with absolute certainty that disaster is about to strike.

The events of the past week are no exception.

The bailout package that is about to be rammed down Congress’ throat is not just economically foolish. It is downright sinister. It makes a mockery of our Constitution, which our leaders should never again bother pretending is still in effect. It promises the American people a never-ending nightmare of ever-greater debt liabilities they will have to shoulder. Two weeks ago, financial analyst Jim Rogers said the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac made America more communist than China! “This is welfare for the rich,” he said. “This is socialism for the rich. It’s bailing out the financiers, the banks, the Wall Streeters.”

That describes the current bailout package to a T. And we’re being told it’s unavoidable.

The claim that the market caused all this is so staggeringly foolish that only politicians and the media could pretend to believe it. But that has become the conventional wisdom, with the desired result that those responsible for the credit bubble and its predictable consequences - predictable, that is, to those who understand sound, Austrian economics - are being let off the hook. The Federal Reserve System is actually positioning itself as the savior, rather than the culprit, in this mess!

• The Treasury Secretary is authorized to purchase up to $700 billion in mortgage-related assets at any one time. That means $700 billion is only the very beginning of what will hit us.

• Financial institutions are “designated as financial agents of the Government.” This is the New Deal to end all New Deals.

• Then there’s this: “Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.” Translation: the Secretary can buy up whatever junk debt he wants to, burden the American people with it, and be subject to no one in the process.

There goes your country.

Even some so-called free-market economists are calling all this “sadly necessary.” Sad, yes. Necessary? Don’t make me laugh.

Our one-party system is complicit in yet another crime against the American people. The two major party candidates for president themselves initially indicated their strong support for bailouts of this kind - another example of the big choice we’re supposedly presented with this November: yes or yes. Now, with a backlash brewing, they’re not quite sure what their views are. A sad display, really.

Although the present bailout package is almost certainly not the end of the political atrocities we’ll witness in connection with the crisis, time is short. Congress may vote as soon as tomorrow. With a Rasmussen poll finding support for the bailout at an anemic seven percent, some members of Congress are afraid to vote for it. Call them! Let them hear from you! Tell them you will never vote for anyone who supports this atrocity.

The issue boils down to this: do we care about freedom? Do we care about responsibility and accountability? Do we care that our government and media have been bought and paid for? Do we care that average Americans are about to be looted in order to subsidize the fattest of cats on Wall Street and in government? Do we care?

When the chips are down, will we stand up and fight, even if it means standing up against every stripe of fashionable opinion in politics and the media?

Times like these have a way of telling us what kind of a people we are, and what kind of country we shall be.

In liberty,
Ron Paul

//

Email This Post Email This Post +++ Print This Post Print This Post +++ Now that's del.icio.us.

thoughts on oil addiction

Now that gas prices are “coming down” (yes, we feel just GREAT about $3.75/gallon… what!?) I don’t sense the same urgency in the American populace to fix this problem that existed when it was $5. Of course, this placation was expected by most and predicted by many, but that doesn’t change the fact that there is still a problem out there that was never solved. And it’s not fixed now, just because we are back to ignoring it.

I fear we are addicted to foreign oil, and maybe just oil in general.

But in the words of the immutable LeVar Burton, you don’t have to take my word for it! Please check out some or all of the links below.

//

T. Boone Pickens, the founder and chairman of BP Capital Management (which manages over $4 billion in energy-oriented investment funds) has created the Pickens Plan, which aims to develop clean energy solutions.

Here’s a great article from one of my favorite contemporary revolutionaries, Dr. Ron Paul: Big Government Responsible For High Gas Prices

Newt Gingrich has also thrown his thoughts into this discussion, and although I’m not convinced that more drilling will be a long-term solution, it does seem like a reasonable band-aid, considering our current economic challenges.

If you’re a reader, you know I’m a big fan of Chris Martenson; he’s a very level-headed proponent of financial literacy. Check out his very important explanation of what “peak oil” really is — apparently, I had no idea! (This video may take a moment to load.)

In my quest for the truth, I came across a documentary called A Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash. This film is so obviously targeted towards proving its premise — namely, that there will be an oil crash — that it’s earned a bit of skepticism from me (as I’m sure you’ve noticed, it is increasingly hard to decipher truth from propaganda). Nonetheless, it is very interesting and quite well-made.

(The only free version I could find online has subtitles of some language I don’t know, which isn’t saying much as I barely have a handle on English.)

There’s also an interesting intersection of the “climate crisis” with our oil addiction. Check out WE:

There’s no question this is a complex issue with many moving parts, but I think we all know that it won’t be solved by ignoring it. And it most likely won’t be solved by the fatcat baby boomers who actually have the power to help, as they have proven time and time again that they are more than happy to leave their problems to us when they leave this world. (I’ll go into more detail on that issue some other day.)

I know I’m not really offering many — if any — real solutions in this post, but I figure awareness is a good start!

//

Email This Post Email This Post +++ Print This Post Print This Post +++ Now that's del.icio.us.

the end of the innocence

Photo by djwhelan. Essay by Bob Lefsetz: July 3, 2008

They said life would never be the same after 9/11.

But somehow it was.

Sure, the government kept telling us to be aware of terrorist attacks, but despite some anthrax being mailed around in the weeks after the Twin Towers fell, nothing ever happened. Sure, we ultimately had to take off our shoes as we went through airport security, but life was surprisingly just like it had always been. Citizens shopped as our President urged them to. Kids went to school, parents bought SUVs and life wasn’t much different than it was in the nineties.

Until a couple of months ago. When gasoline suddenly spiked. When suddenly a jaunt to buy a quart of milk, to rent a DVD, was no longer a mindless decision, but something to be debated. Was it worth the cost of the gas?

We’ve been living in ignorance for far too long. Thinking some men in white robes were looking out for us. But they just turned out to be profiteers, paying lip service to bettering society, but really only interested in lining their pockets. Now, to be an average citizen is to contemplate one’s future. One’s economic future. No one’s worrying about whether a bomb is going to hit their city, rather whether they’ll have enough money to put food on the table.

The airlines are collapsing. Even Toyota took a hit, while GM heads toward possible bankruptcy. America’s fate may no longer be intertwined with the world’s largest car manufacturer, but if your corporate institutions are struggling, the effect is felt by people who don’t even own an automobile.

We no longer produce the steel in our cars, our clothes are made overseas and it seems the only thing we make is money. And, our financial institutions are not even that good at that. Bear Stearns had to be rescued for the good of the overall economy. While we were out fighting terror, making the world safe for democracy, we lost a bunch of our freedoms and America lost a great deal of its power.

China owns not only many of our buildings, but a ton of our debt. Our fate is inextricably hooked to this eastern country. They could bring our economy to its knees instantly. And, for all our efforts in the Middle East, Iraq is still not secure and Afghanistan is in turmoil. But what hurts most is the American people. Without pensions and health care. With more bills than money.

It’s almost beyond blame. We’re in a quagmire. The only question is how to get out. Whether to stay the course or try something new. Then, the man standing for change abruptly changes his positions and we feel that the only people looking out for ourselves is us.

Drink that beer, eat that hot dog, enjoy that parade. Have a good Fourth. But know that finally, everything truly is different. Whether it be natural disasters caused by global warming or the inability to afford a cross-country trip. The American way of life has taken a hit.

We’re all in this together. That inner city gang member is not far removed from the person flying in the private jet. No one is immune. We’re all members of society. How do we change for the better?

I don’t know.

But it’s time we started speaking the truth.

I’d hope the politicians could achieve this.

But the politicians always follow the artists. The artist, unencumbered, speaking from his heart, leads the way.

In the name of lifestyle, in the name of riches, our musical artists have abdicated their responsibility. And somehow the blame has been put upon the public, for stealing their wares, denying the fat cats their profits. The movie studios abolished reality long ago, and the television outlets have manufactured a false reality to sell to a numb public, just looking for a little release.

It’s palpable. Something’s changed. And there’s no easy solution. Gas is not going back down to three dollars a gallon, never mind two. There’s a cloud over our everyday activities. And we’ve got no confidence positive change is in the wind, never mind achievable. They tell us to party like it’s 1999, but those days are long gone.

Driving home from the doctor in the fading heat of a long summer day I heard Don Henley’s “The End Of The Innocence” on the radio. I remembered 1989, when the record was ubiquitous. When MTV still played videos and everybody with an established career sold millions of albums. When my wife left our home behind. In the shock of that event, the only thing that soothed me was music. I drove around pushing the button, longing to hear “The End Of The Innocence”, longing to feel rooted, connected to something.

I don’t need a bigger house. I don’t need two dollar a gallon gas. I jus need to feel connected, to feel that I’m not crazy, that other people are freaked out too, are shocked at what’s happened to our country. I need the musicians to speak the collective truth. To put words and sounds to what we feel. To point us in the proper direction. Because I’m lost.

Subscribe to the Lefsetz Letter at Lefsetz.com.

//

Email This Post Email This Post +++ Print This Post Print This Post +++ Now that's del.icio.us.

a presidential campaign fit for a prom king

When did the American political process become a popularity contest?

I realize that the phrase “popularity contest” is fairly cliché at this point, so, along with me, let’s try to think about what it actually means.

Remember high school? Remember the endless posturing for attention? The constant feeling of never being quite good enough? Cool enough? Popular enough? (Maybe it’s just me, but I still feel that way most of the time… I guess Bowling For Soup was right.)

Unfortunately, our presidential political process is starting to remind me of a contest for prom king. Given, it’s an infinitely more expensive, drawn-out, ridiculous contest, but still.

Shouldn’t we be concerned with trying to find the most world-wise, healthy, balanced, economically-brilliant person in the country to select as our next leader instead of relying on advertising and charisma? Shouldn’t the leader of the world’s current (and hopefully future) primary economic superpower have some advanced business degrees… or at least remotely know what the HELL they’re doing in regards to economics?

I’m not sure why this has hit me so plainly in the last few days; perhaps it’s the fact that we now have two admittedly economically ignorant presidential candidates.

Well, to be fair, only McCain has openly admitted his ignorance; but Obama’s a staunch democrat, so that automatically qualifies him for at least moderate ignorant status. (Quick explanation for such a rash comment: democratic policies all reach their logical end at varying degrees of big government and socialism, which is historically cumbersome and impossibly expensive for citizens. But if someone would like to explain to me how socialistic policies make economic sense, I’m totally open to it!) I’m no republican, either — especially in regards to this neoconservative bent that most “republicans” have nowadays. Their idea of conservatism is spending $12 billion dollars a month on an overseas war, blowing things up. (Anyone else see the irony? Conservative? REALLY? Things that are BLOWN UP don’t come back or create anything new, guys.)

I think there’s a pretty good chance that, come November, Obama will be our Guy. Call it intuition or whatever, but it seems like the cultural winds are headed that direction. I’ve mentioned Obama as a possible #2 candidate choice for me (I still believe our country made a grave error in ignoring Dr. Paul), but as I learn more about his economic outlook, I am becoming more and more skeptical.

Don’t get me wrong; I think that political savvy — in the sense of being able to connect and soothe tense and potentially volatile relationships — is a key ingredient to being a good leader, and Obama brings a sense of earnest diplomacy to the table which I like very much. But these days, I just find myself wondering if that will be enough. Will that be enough, amidst our oil prices, our overseas spending, our healthcare challenges, our real estate crashes, our retirement issues, our national debt, our declining dollar, the globalization of business… all of which are tied to very complex economic engines?

We don’t need a prom king with a credit card. We need an economic genius with some people skills.

//

Email This Post Email This Post +++ Print This Post Print This Post +++ Now that's del.icio.us.

tipping behind the scenes

It’s easy to discount all the things that are happening behind the scenes.

In our entertainment-based culture, we tend to only respect the final, glowing, sparkling, gleaming product, free from all blemishes and glitches. We airbrush our photos, we put 7 second time-delays on our “live” radio and television feeds, and we have dress rehearsals for our church services. We want our news packaged into headlines, simple soundbytes to consume or discard. We want our politicians in suits and ties, not gym clothes.

Anymore, there have almost become two strictly dichotomized worlds: one for presentation, and one for preparation. Everyday Life has become a TV show.

But behind the scenes… that’s where the magic happens.

I just finished reading Malcom Gladwell’s glorious book “The Tipping Point” in which he describes how relatively small things have a tremendous impact in “tipping” social epidemics, from fashion to education to crime. In the first section he describes The Law Of The Few, where a relatively small number of extraordinary people are crucial to kickstarting an epidemic. But I’m starting to wonder if it’s those select few, those people that fit into some kind of “behind the scenes” Social or Informational Aristocracy, that actually do most of the world’s work, period.

When I originally came up with the idea for this post (”behind the scenes”), I wanted to write about what I find to be an utterly demoralizing disconnection between how “the masses” seem to perceive reality and what I’d consider to be “actual reality.” I am often frustrated by how so many people can be so infinitely clueless as to what’s going on in the world around them. Ever met some of these folks?

But I don’t feel like the gap can be attributed simply to an lack of intelligence; in fact, I think the problem is mostly 1) a shortage of ability to manage one’s own life or 2) sheer laziness (or a combination of both).

(I know that last little rant can make me sound a bit condescending, but actually, I bring this up because I know that people can change. If you want to learn to manage your life, do it. If you want to stop being lazy, do it. Also, I know discussions like this can make me sound like some kind of elitist, but I am not talking about human value, I am talking about human productivity, and that’s an important distinction.)

No matter the reason, the reality is that it’s really just a numbers game. Most people are responders, not innovators. We can talk in terms of Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovation bell curve, of innovators-to-laggards, if you like… same thing. Here’s a nice epidemiology diagram, for your visual jollity:

You can see the “learning curve” that sweeps upward and which, by the end, represents the nearly complete diffusion of the phenomena in question. (Everyone feels more intelligent when discussing sociology with big words.)

What I know is that there are all of these “things” happening out there in the world: from food crises to economic crises to violent military crises, and most people are content — happier, even — knowing that they won’t every have to touch these problems with a 30-foot-stick if they don’t want to. But for me, these realities hit me like a branch in the face. For me, it means that someone else is controlling my life — or at least “pulling the strings” and directing aspects of the world I interact in.

And I’m not a big fan of that.

If you’ve read Gladwell’s book and buy what he says, you simply can’t get around the concept that, in terms of “phenomena tipping” at least, some people are simply more important than others. What I wonder is if this mystery also extends into the world’s productivity.

Are there a select few people pulling the majority of the weight? Does the 80/20 rule apply here? Are 20% of the world’s population doing 80% of the work?

Is there any way to tell?

//

Email This Post Email This Post +++ Print This Post Print This Post +++ Now that's del.icio.us.

my backyard is on fire

Yesterday morning Allison and I woke up at the upper thigh of dawn (which is just before the butt crack of dawn, if you didn’t know) to head off to the glorious desert, where I attempted, as I do every week, to get a bunch of half-asleep people (whom, at that point, were likely sleeping in their soft beds twenty minutes ago) to sing along with a bunch of songs they’ve heard 800 times but somehow still can’t remember.

As our residence is in the “almost-nice” part of North Hollywood, we generally hear a few sirens now and then, but this morning it seemed a bit much — even for NoHo.

I walked outside to get something out of Blue (now that we have two Focuses, they are simply known by their color: Silver and Blue) and notice a dark, creepy looking cloud overhead. Didn’t think too much of it until we went out the other way to Silver, parked on the street.

Universal Studios was on fire.

And Universal Studios is, essentially, right in my backyard.

Well, I guess it would be my front yard.

Anyway, this is pretty much what we saw:

That’s Allison and I, there in the center.

Just kidding. This is actually much closer to what we could see from our place (minus the trucks):

Looked like we were on friggin’ LOST or something.

Then we noticed that poor ol’ Silver was covered in ash, and pieces of what looked to be large-ish burnt chunks of paper, or something. Of course at that point we had NO idea what was going on, and it hadn’t even hit any news stations yet (believe you me, we checked Alli’s Treo internet), so naturally we assumed the world was ending and went back inside to skip church and have sex all day.

Wait, no, that’s not what happened either.

Back in Realisticland, we found out that windshield wipers miraculously work on ash, and chugged on up to the wonderful AV.

Here’s a few more pics, for good measure… this is some crazy shit to have in your backyard. Or front yard. Whatever.

//

Email This Post Email This Post +++ Print This Post Print This Post +++ Now that's del.icio.us.